Risk or opportunity: Time to get smart in dealing with America

In a surprise move, Donald Trump has invited Chinese President Xi Jinping to his presidential inauguration in January, his spokesperson said on Thursday. While the Chinese embassy in Washington DC declined to comment, precedent usually involves the inviting party making some kind of political concessions in order to get such a privilege.

Either way, the invitation comes at a surprise, not least when Trump has staffed his administration with raging China hawks that includes Marco Rubio, and moreover his comments have been laden with threats of assertive actions toward Beijing in the form of increased tariffs. Generally, this makes the mood pessimistic, yet with Trump the truth is you can never really tell what he's going to do. He has always been unique to the sense that he is aggressive on one hand, but then holds an olive branch on the other, one the outgoing Biden presidency was unwilling to give.

Trump as an individual is pragmatic. Although he always wants things to be done his way, on his terms, he is not a neoconservative or a zealot and takes a very personalized approach to foreign policy which contrasts sharply with the moralistic arbitrariness of other presidents, despite who he may have appointed around him. Trump can be very harsh, and even dangerous to confront, but he also likes to make deals where he can and resolve things. Thus, he was willing to meet with the Democratic People's Republic of Korea leader Kim Jong Un in 2018-2019 and was also willing to make a first-stage trade deal with China in early 2020. This very much contrasts with the "Cold War mindset" of US foreign policy thinkers and elite.

Based on this, I have previously argued that it is in China's best interests to try and engage with a second Trump administration, and that any strategy of dealing with the United States should be premised on marginalizing the ultra-hawks with optimistic moves which shift the political paradigm against them, as opposed to doing provocative things which empower them.

While I'm growing older and more mature, I realize that you need to play a smarter game, which is: If you be open to what Donald Trump wants and you find a way to productively work with him, things will be better. Trump would absolutely kill the Cold War climate tomorrow if you allow him to claim a political victory for himself that he will give to Americans, which he is of course very good at selling. Trump's ego is his No. 1 priority, and moreover the theatrics he goes to to claim his own success is actually a good thing.

Trump is hawkish to China but he is diplomatic in his own humble sort of way through his willingness to be amicable to President Xi. Contrast this to Joe Biden who actually shunned most forms of engagement with China, followed up any meeting with hawkish measures, and refused to negotiate anything with Beijing at all including the Trump-era tariffs. Trump himself of course has repeatedly pledged to remove those tariffs if China gives him what he wants, he offers an exit ramp, whereas a Biden administration is much more geopolitically aggressive and uncompromising. Therefore, even if things are not great in the form of tariffs, product bans, or whatever, it is in China's interest and long-term focus to be restrained with this new administration and focus on diplomatic engagement.

Trump's invitation to Xi to attend this ceremony is a personal gesture and it would send a huge political signal to the most fanatical ultra-hawks throughout America and the world. This is an effective reset in relations that Biden would never, ever accept. Trump does audacious things, but he also opens the road to changing the status quo by doing so, this is a good opportunity.

(The author, a postgraduate student of Chinese studies at Oxford University, is an English analyst on international relations. The views are his own.)